Inflation & the upcoming recession

[ryanator]

Like at our work, we have no limit on sick leave, but it's an honor system. Here's the key point here, people in some settings like the office are workaholics, and now there will be pressure to not want to take days off while others aren't. And very important, no payouts for unused time off.

 

[ndboarder]

I also don't understand exactly how it is going to work... Though a lot of companies have gone that route. There IS a payout of unused time off - this one time when they move to it, anything existing employees have on the books will get paid out. Of note, not all states require PTO pay outs if you leave/get fired, so keeping too much on the books in some states is just time you'd lose and money you'd lose regardless of employer or policy.

Basically the idea is that if you can get your job done, and take time off, then go for it. But also, you have to get your time off approved still, so someone is going to make sure you aren't taking off 364 days a year and that your job is getting done.

Honestly, I think this kind of policy will make people LESS likely to take all the time off they deserve. Let's say you had 5 weeks of time off before and if you didn't use it, you lost it. Well, now you could still take 5 weeks off, but there's nothing to lose at the end of year. I've so often see coworkers who have to suddenly take the last 2 or 3 weeks of a year off because they need to use up PTO before it is lost. Now, if you don't have PTO accumulating or have to track in tools when time was taken, they'll come to the end of the year knowing they didn't really take enough time, but also not having a use it or lose it excuse to take a long leave at end of year. Except, you know, for the new young punks that think they should be paid a 7 figure salary straight out of grade school to do absolutely nothing for 5 hours a week. They'll take all the time they possibly can.

 

[nodle]

Thanks for the clarification @ryanator and @ndboarder it makes a lot more sense now.

 

[nodle]

So according to the media inflation is over now? Can someone please let the grocery stores know then? They will lower their prices now, right? RIGHT?

 

[nodle]

R.I.P @ndboarder

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615420568068624398

 

[nodle]

I have seen for the last two days from local news sources that a couple of larger towns are starting to have business/restaurants close. The reasons though the articles say is due to the lack of help. They said no one would even show up for interviews, and they didn't have enough workers to keep their doors open.

 

[C Pav]

I have seen for the last two days from local news sources that a couple of larger towns are starting to have business/restaurants close. The reasons though the articles say is due to the lack of help. They said no one would even show up for interviews, and they didn't have enough workers to keep their doors open.

That's the trend. You know what has fed them this bull schizzle? Online/internet echo chambers telling them they deserve equal pay to everyone else. Wern't you on that train saying everyone deserves good pay? Hey, I hate to see people struggle too but until the large majority stop feeling entitled, waste money on so many things for self pleasure over essentials in life and understand how real life works than I have zero empathy for them.

Face it, until they get hit hard with real world you suck and learn to be better slaps to their face to snap out of their dillusional mental state nothing will change or get better. And that isn't going to happen.

 

[nodle]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626220100209582080

 

[nodle]

Like I stated before the sanctions only helped.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1629571970583937029

 

[nodle]

This would make the market boom. Almost timing what @jmanz said.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1630236213884985344

 

[C Pav]

Hmm, I thought I read that inflataion is still out of control and more hikes were necessary.

 

[jmanz]

This would make the market boom. Almost timing what @jmanz said.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1630236213884985344

That could happen. Or it might cause the market to go down if the economy is bad enough at that time to warrant the cut. Cuts happen because things have really really slowed. I believe the "pause" before the cut is the event that will make it pop more than anything.

It's a tight rope the fed is trying to walk. They need to hike to keep attempting to bring inflation down but don't want the hard landing (economy crash).

It's amazing how resiliant our economy is to the fastest rate hikes in history so far. Things take many months to work through however so we'll see. Nobody really knows anything.

 

[nodle]

I know everyone is just hoping we slide thought it, at least every business owner I have talked with in our area. So far not too big of a change here. Some of the smaller people have backed out on projects. But there are so many wealthy people around here the inflation doesn't affect them like the common man, and it helps the common man to continue to work around here as well. I have been talking to a realtor here in our area to see how this housing market is going to affect everything around here. So far there is not too much of a difference she said, it's slower right now because of Winter anyways, but she is still doing showings. She said things are holding steady for our area and they are expecting a housing boom like the last 2 years for this year as well. Guess time will tell.

On a side note, she told me she has actually had a couple of people back out of wanting to move away from the area. One guy said he was going to move to Texas, but will all the illegals crossing the border they had decided to stay here to feel safer. 😄

 

[jmanz]

The fed hasn't been able to crush certain sectors of the economy like everyone has thought. Take concerts, sporting events and travel related things for example. Tickets are sky high. People were cooped up for too long and are unwilling to give those things up. And really only the west coast tech sector has had much in the way of lay-offs/job loss. And they were bloated to begin with.

So either the fed will hammer away with rate increases to get it down to 2% inflation, or they will accept a higher rate. Perhaps 3%? That is my guess as to what will happen.

 

[nodle]

Sick of all this inflation crap, I will admit it does stop you from spending. I have stuff in my Amazon cart, but it never goes down, it just goes up in price and then I don't buy anything. I have it there too when it goes back to normal price to purchase, but nope, just continue to rise.

 

[nodle]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1634236441080283139

 

[nodle]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1636345618019807236

 

[nodle]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1637827101624524800

 

[nodle]

See, I told you McDonald’s prices are insane.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1637995455513493505